In syria, russias stakes in president bashar alassads regime were clearly significant. Some of them also point to russian cultural connections with syria and the substantial russianspeaking community living. Elie abouaoun explains how the turkish and russian governments are trying to contain the fallout, saying i do not think any party has an interest right now in provoking a. A syria at peace would become less of a breeding ground for islamic extremism and pose less threat to the outside world. There are reasons to believe that this rapprochement will strengthen over time, but it may reach a point of conflict of interest in the distant future. It assesses irans political, security and economic. However, the ministry downplayed the importance of the evacuation, with those.
Iraqi officials also demonstrated a strong interest to cooperate with russia in fighting with isis. A few weeks before russiansupported syrian troops broke the jihadi groups three. Their secondary interests are some degree of autonomy in the east and some settlement on crimea that gives russia more extensive rights there than it had before. Pdf when the arab spring reached syria, its pharaoh, bashar alassad, was in no mood to give up easily. Syria update 23 march 2020 table of contents download pdf version share on facebook share on twitter share on linkedin share on print share on email share on whatsapp no spitting, no fighting. With europes largest muslim population,1 russia wants to have good relations with the centers of the. The core russian interest is the military neutralization of ukraine. Thomas points to optimistic versus pessimistic russian views on how the recent us election will impact us policy in syria. Only once a russian president has visited syria, dmitry medvedev in 2010. In springsummer 2015, russia and iran pursued an initiative for highlevel.
Coronavirus crisis reaches syria in depth analysis on 22 march, government of syria health minister nizar yaziji announced the first official case. Putins middle east game changer satellite imagery provided by allsource analysis confirms the recent arrival of russian main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters, and other military equipment at an airbase in syrias coastal latakia province, indicating that russia has deployed troops inside syria. Russian operational planners ostensibly restricted the requirement for russian ground forces and focused instead on preparing and supporting syrian government and iranian forces for. It will provide a brief analysis of the reasons and interests for. August 10, 2012 september 10, 2017 observer research foundation 4 comments. Since 2000, putin has sought to restore russia as a great power, shaping its policy as an antiamerican zerosum game in order to position the country as a counterweight to the west in the middle east. This perspective seeks to identify the important elements of russian interests in middle east beyond syria, to define the nature of russian engagement in the region, and to describe the contours of a russian strategy in the middle east. Russian and american interests in syria nuclear diner. Russias interest in syria is very much a political statement to the west to projectan image of russias strength. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, but perhaps there is a key. For the full list of papers and free download, please visit eudp. Can russia translate victories on the battlefield into longlasting influence in the middle east region. The paper investigates the diplomatic dimensions of the syrian conflict and pays attention to the conflict of interests amongst the major powers most especially the united states and russia.
Russias strategic interest in syria themarketswork. Russias vital national interests at stake in syria. If russia does have a longstanding security concern in the region, it is the spread of international terrorism to russia and neigh boring states. A historical study from the russian perspectives international journal of humanities social sciences and education ijhsse page 9 countries in the region16 putin. The linked russian politicalmilitary initiative in syria with a bombing campaign.
Russia s best asset in the middle east andrej kreutz november 2010. Both the russian federation and the united states have strong interests at stake in syria,and these interests overlap in part, but not completely both the united states and russia seek to ensure a stable and unified syria, though the two countries disagree on how to achieve this. Doing so is the only way to stop the killing, end the flow of refugees to europe, and restore order. Russias recent use of an iranian airbase to launch airstrikes into syria is the most recent evidence of the expedient strengthening of ties between russia and iran thanks to the syrian conflict. However, the syrian case, in russia regions of national interest is different from that of. An explanation for russias interest in syria analysis. Putins power play in syria how to respond to russia s intervention angela stent a t the end of september, russia began conducting air strikes in syria, ostensibly to combat terrorist groups. But what is russias historical interest in syria, and why might it want to maintain a presence in that embattled land.
The united states second main interest is to end the civil war. As the war in syria grinds on into its third year, support among the american public for more robust u. Few however, recall the remainder of that 1939 adage. The scale of moscows involvement in syria has triggered speculation in the west of a military buildup. Syria is russia s most important foothold in the region and a key to putins calculus. It may be useful to list probable russian and american interests in syrias ongoing civil war in what might be considered a realist analysis. Russias activity in syria and support for bashar alassad since the outbreak of the civil war. This book is the first to offer a comprehensive survey of moscows foreign policy interests in syria. One type of rus sian aircraft deployed to syria, the su30is capable of engaging other aircraft in addition to ground targets. On january 20, the russian emergency situations ministry announced that it will evacuate approximately one hundred russian citizens from syria, mostly women and children. Despite their alliance, russia has never had much influence over syrias policies. Russian soldiers on armored vehicles patrol a street on 2 february 2017 in aleppo, syria.
The strikes constitute russia s biggest intervention in the middle east in decades. Another round of talks in sochi is planned for early next year. It must be understood that syria neither is moscows ally nor is considered as such. Preserve access of russian companies to syrias market to ensure. Russian strategy in the middle east rand corporation. Despite their alliance, russia has never had much influence over syria s policies. Russian diplomatic effortswith the possible exceptions of some oilproducing countries, most importantly saudi arabia. A logic all its own russian operational art in the syrian. The interests of the kremlin in the case of syria, however, are fed by a mixture of fear, mistrust and geopolitics. Think of syria as a proxy war two powerful nations unwilling to risk the massive destruction that would accompany a direct conflict.
There are over 2,000 radical islamists or terrorists born in russia mainly from north caucasus that are fighting in syria. The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis 3 overview in springsummer 2015, russia and iran pursued an initiative for highlevel international talks, aimed at keeping president bashar alassad or at least elements of his regime in place as part of a political transition in syria. On november 22, the leaders of iran, russia, and turkey met in the russian resort town of sochi to discuss syrias future, and on november 28, the latest round of unsponsored talks between representatives of syrian president bashar alassad and the opposition began in geneva. There are several reasons for russia to care about whats happening in syria, here are the most significant. Its unanticipated military foray into syria has transformed. However, instead of analyzing russian president vladimir putins motivations for the operation in syria, us experts should focus their attention on current realities that both russia and the us are facing in syria today, pillar wrote. Russian strategy in syria and the broader middle east consists of supporting what it considers legitimate institutions through extensive foreign aid programs, including economic and security assistance, political support and, as seen in syria, direct military intervention. The domino effect of the arab spring in syria which began as a reaction against the regime of basher assad over the years has deteriorated into a civil war. Occasional paper understanding irans role in the syrian. Russian invests considerably in the oil sector in syria and is looking to. Power, prestige, and profit azuolas bagdonas1 abstract despite the crimes against humanity committed by bashar assads regime in syria and despite the growing international pressure, russia provided steadfast international. In the arab east, syria, probably one of the most independent countries from the west, has had close and wellestablished relations with moscow for a long time.
Syrias bashar alassad is russias only ally in the mediterranean. The new york times reported that at least four russian nationals and perhaps dozens more were among those killed in a recent u. Why russia is suddenly interested in syrias civil war. Pdf the battle between the usa and russia that had been snuffed by the demise of the soviet union has been rekindled. After direct military confrontations between the assad regime and turkey in syrias idlib province, usips dr. Russias many interests in syria middle east voices. A read is counted each time someone views a publication summary such as the title, abstract, and list of authors, clicks on a figure, or views or downloads the fulltext. Russia and iran, the two main military allies and enablers of the syrian. Underlying interests and policy objectives simon saradzhyan. Putins middle east game changer satellite imagery provided by allsource analysis confirms the recent arrival of russian main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters, and other military equipment at an airbase in syria s coastal latakia province, indicating that russia has deployed troops inside syria.
In seeking to understand syrias importance, we first need to understand how the modern state gained its independence. The diplomatic dimensions of the syrian conflict faith. In pursuit of maintaining their interests in syria, moscow and tehran have adopted different. In the aftermath of world war ii, the territory of modern syria belonged, as a colony, to france. Russian aircraft began bombing missions against opponents of the assad regime at the end of september 2015. First, the current situation in syria is not a zerosum game.
Syrias complex and devastating civil war has drawn in multiple foreign powers since it broke out in 2011. Syria in russias foreign policy in the 21st century pan lublin. Still, in the sphere of international relations, it is selfinterest, not friendship, that counts in the end. The russian naval facility in tartus, syria, was established during the cold war under a 1971 agreement with syria. But israel does have critical security interests that it seeks to advance in syria principally, minimizing iranian and russian influence in syria, blocking the transfer of advanced weapons to hezbollah, preventing syria from posing a credible military threat to israel or permitting iran to do so, undermining the legitimacy of syrias claims. Careful distilling of statements by russian leaders and russias strategic documents would reveal there are several important national interests of russia at stake in. Iran signed an agreement with iraq and syria to run a pipeline from irans north pars through iraq, across syria to the russiancontrolled syrian port of tartous and through the mediterranean to europe. War resurgence between russia and the euroatlantic community. Besides, syria is a crucial market for russian arms. Understanding russias intervention in syria rand corporation. The effects of russian intervention in the syria crisis.